Monday, April 14, 2008

Forecast: Big quake likely in California

AP Article
LOS ANGELES - California faces an almost certain risk of being rocked by a strong earthquake by 2037, scientists said Monday in the first statewide temblor forecast.

New calculations reveal there is a 99.7 percent chance a magnitude 6.7 quake or larger will strike in the next 30 years. The odds of such an event are higher in Southern California than Northern California, 97 percent versus 93 percent.

Almost 100% chance there will be a big earthquake within the next 30 years. I've been in SoCal for ~23 years and I've been through at least 3 big ones so I think they're a bit conservative on their forecast. Maybe it's time to move to China!

- 10/1/87 Whittier Narrows, 5.9
- 6/28/91 Sierra Madre, 5.8
- 6/28/92 Landers, 7.3
- 1/17/94 Northridge, 6.7

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